Oct 28 Briefing

Today’s main event: Fed decision at 11 AM Pacific

The Fed announces its rate decision at 11:00 AM Pacific today, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 11:30 AM. Both are key moments for today’s session.Federal Reserve

A hold at 3.75–4.00% is the base case: 94 of 100 economists in the Reuters poll expected no change, according to Newsquawk’s October 27 preview. CME FedWatch probabilities reported October 27 were 90.6% for a hold and 9.4% for a quarter-point hike to 4.00–4.25%. Those are futures-implied odds, separate from the economist survey.Newsquawk · Reuters economist pollYahoo Finance · CME FedWatch

A hike today would be the surprise. A hold would still leave the statement, dissenting votes and Warsh’s comments on inflation and December in focus. All 100 economists in the Reuters poll expected a December hike. Watch whether the Fed reinforces that path or signals more patience; either could shift rate expectations even if today’s decision matches the consensus.Newsquawk · Reuters economist poll

SK hynix record quarter and 100 trillion won payout lift Asian tech

SK hynix reported record third-quarter 2026 revenue of 104.62 trillion won and operating profit of 39.78 trillion won, an operating margin of 80%. The company cited surging prices and higher sales of high-end products, including a rise in DRAM average selling prices in the high-20% range. It also announced a 2026 shareholder return program of 100 trillion won, made up of at least 30 trillion won in dividends and 60 trillion won in buybacks.fiscal.ai

Management said supply constraints are expected to last through 2030 because leading-edge processes are technically complex and new facilities take a long time to build. More than 50% of 2027 and 2028 production capacity is already secured under long-term contracts, the company said. Yahoo Finance UK reported that operating profit rose 632% and that the results eased earlier concerns about the profitability of AI investment, supporting Asian tech stocks. Oil prices also climbed as investors tracked the outcome of Israel's election.fiscal.aiYahoo Finance UK

New Zealand dollar slides after central bank holds despite hike expectations

CNBC reported that the New Zealand dollar tumbled after the central bank left rates unchanged, defying markets' near-certainty of a hike. The currency has lost almost 5% against the US dollar over the past six months.CNBC

Airlines trim fuel hedges and warn on fares as Iran war continues

Reuters reported that airlines are pulling back on fuel hedging and warning about fares as the war involving Iran drags on.Reuters

Delivery Hero lifts 2026 growth forecast while Uber pursuit continues

Delivery Hero raised its 2026 gross merchandise value growth forecast to 10% to 12% from 9% to 11%, its second upward revision this year, following strong third-quarter growth. The company is the target of a takeover bid from Uber.fiscal.ai

Banks back $63 billion financing for Anthropic's Broadcom chip access

Bank of America, Blackstone, Citi and Morgan Stanley are backing a $63 billion financing deal to give Anthropic access to Broadcom's XPU AI accelerators and networking products. The financing is designed to support Anthropic's AI infrastructure needs.fiscal.ai

Intesa Sanpaolo puts governance proposal to Generali

Intesa Sanpaolo presented a proposal on its involvement with Assicurazioni Generali that has two parts: strengthening internal processes and adding an independent director to Generali's board.fiscal.ai

Houthis call for immediate evacuation of Aden airport

Reuters reported that Yemen's Houthis called for the immediate evacuation of Aden airport.Reuters

Quebec orders talks on 30% French-content quota for streamers

Quebec's government said it will require major US streaming platforms such as Netflix and Spotify to carry a 30% quota of French-language content. The premier said the province will lead the negotiations directly, without involving the federal government.fiscal.ai